Talk of the “Blue Wave” at the national level has subsided a bit given the Republican gains in the U.S. Senate and an historically typical shift in seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the first midterm election in the President’s first term (the Democrats may gain just over 30 seats in 2018, but keep in mind they lost 63 seats in 2010). Yet, one interesting phenomenon emerging from the electoral tides of 2018 is a solidification of Red and Blue status across states, as conservative and liberal states each hardened their positions in the geopolitical landscape. Yet, given the victory of the slate of Democrats’ for Colorado’s statewide offices, and what will be a unified Democratic legislature, the blue wave certainly seemed to hit Colorado.
But the breadth and depth of that wave is worth examining more closely, not only in terms of the high-profile races, or the odd shifts in party control for specific local offices (think Adams County Sheriff). Instead, below we take a look at all four statewide races, the seven Congressional District (CD) races, and all sixty-five State House and seventeen State Senate races in 2018. If Colorado followed national trends, we might uncover some variation in the effects of the blue wave as partisan lines across legislative districts harden, with some Republicans picking up support as the geopolitical big sort plays out within the state. Or, if the Blue Wave narrative rings true statewide, then Democratic gains should be both wide (across most districts) and deep (gains of substantial magnitudes).
Let’s start with something simple and compare the percent of the vote in the previous election and 2018’s vote, as well as the margins in each election for the statewide offices and the seven CDs. The figures presented highlight the breadth of the Democratic gains. Figure 1 (above) shows how Democrats in 2018 fared relative to Democrats in the previous election (2014 for the statewide offices, and 2016 for the CDs). The results are striking—in all of these high-profile races, Democrats in 2018 improved upon their support in the previous election.
Given the data in Figure 1, it is not surprising that Democrats also improved their performance relative to Republican or independent opponents. The percentage point margins for Democrats in both elections are presented in Figure 2, where positive values indicate a Democratic advantage, while negative values indicate the Republican candidate garnered the highest percentage. In 2018, Democrats either won instead of lost (shifts from negative to positive margins), won by more (higher positive margins), or lost by less (negative values of smaller magnitude) compared to the previous election. The breadth of these gains is indicative of a widespread blue wave, with not just in statewide races which may mask geopolitical variation, but across all seven CDs with constituencies ranging from primarily urban to suburban to rural constituencies.
To summarize the Blue Wave for the statewide and CD races, Figure 3 displays the percentage point change in the vote for the Democratic Candidate and the percentage point change in the Democrat’s margin from the previous election. The gains in the level of support for the Democratic candidate ranged from 3.18 to 11.44 percentage points, with an average increase of 6.24. In terms of margins, the Democrats increased their winning margin (or decreased the margin in a loss) by 10.25 percentage points on average, with a range from 5.75 in the Governor’s race to 19.39 percentage points in the high-profile CD 6 race won by Democrat Jason Crow. But even in the Republican-dominated CD 4, Democrats narrowed the gap by 10.4 percentage points. Overall, a good showing for the Democrats across a range of geopolitical contexts.
But the relatively high-profile nature of statewide and CD races, coupled with their larger voter pools, potentially masks some of the variation in the blue wave across Colorado. State legislative districts, with smaller and more homogeneous constituencies, may have eluded the blue wave. In order to see if the blue wave was robust across the state, we turn to State House and Senate races and conduct much the same analyses as above.
To save some space, and since the measure captures the various components of the blue wave, we only focus on the change in the Democratic margins for these races. Change in margins is measured in the same straightforward manner as above, with the percentage point Democratic margin over the nearest competitor in the previous election subtracted from the Democratic margin in 2018. Positive values indicate the Democratic candidate did better in 2018, while negative values reflect a loss of relative support. Figures 4 and 5 present the change in margins for the State House and Senate, respectively.
In 77 of the 82 House and Senate races in 2018 (or 94% of the races), the Democrats realized gains in their margins. On average, those gains amounted to 27.17 and 12.77 percentage point increases from the previous election, respectively; and again, note that these could be gains in winning margins or narrower loses.
But, those five House seats with yellowy-orange negative bars are worth noting. What’s going on there? It turns out that four of those districts were uncontested in 2016 while Republicans or independents fielded a candidate in 2018. In other words, the margin decreased from 100% to something less—the ceiling effect kicked in. The fifth marginal reduction came from the open-seat HD 50, the seat of Treasurer-elect Dave Young (D) who won by just over 16 points in 2016. The open-seat meant the loss of the incumbency advantage for the Democrats, resulting in Democratic candidate Rochelle Galindo winning by only 6.5 percentage points (still a respectable victory). Given these anomalies, and some of the large blue bars that indicate a seat newly uncontested by the GOP (such as HD 32), we ought to re-calculate the average change in margins to only reflect contested seats. Doing so still results in an average increase in the Democratic margin of 15.61 and 12.75 percentage points in the House and Senate respectively (slightly above the 10.25 percentage point average in the high-profile races discussed above). And, here again, excluding the uncontested seats held by Democrats in 2016 from the analysis, only in a single House district (HD 50) did the Democratic margin shrink relative to the previous election.
The depth and breadth of the blue wave seems apparent. From statewide contests to House district races across the state, Democrats in 2018 bettered their performance in the previous election in 88 of the 93 races included in our analysis. The five remaining elections, all resulting in Democratic wins for House seats, are not even suggestive of a GOP ripple. The take-away is that the blue wave hit throughout Colorado and to a meaningful degree. Despite many GOP-held seats remaining quite safe, the blue wave clearly washed ashore across the state, from liberal urban core districts to conservative rural districts. Geography and political culture could not hold back the tide.
While Trump will continue to be a factor, what Democrats in the Statehouse do with their newly won power over the next two years will certainly play a role in their chances of maintaining these gains. And regardless, barring a major scandal, war, recession, etc., gains will likely ebb. The question for 2020 then becomes the magnitude of diminishing margins as they revert to the mean. Unless, of course, the mean was swept away with Colorado’s blue wave of 2018.
